What it measures
Non-Farm Payrolls is the change in the number of people on business and government payrolls in the United States from one month to the next. It leaves out farm workers, people employed by private households, the self-employed and unpaid volunteers. The name comes from leaving out farm workers.
The headline is a change in thousands: a reading of 150K means about 150,000 more paid jobs than the month before. The same report also gives average hourly earnings and the average working week.
Who publishes it and when
It is published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation report, normally on the first Friday of the month at 08:30 New York time, and covers the month before. The unemployment rate comes out in the same report at the same moment.
The release date can move when the first Friday is too early in the month or falls on a holiday, so check the calendar rather than assuming the date.
How it is put together
The figure comes from the Current Employment Statistics survey, which asks around 119,000 businesses and government agencies, covering roughly 622,000 worksites, how many people they paid in the pay period that includes the 12th of the month.
Because not every reply is in by release day, the first figure is an estimate. The two previous months are revised in each new report, and once a year the whole series is benchmarked against fuller tax records.
What traders watch
Traders compare the headline with the previous month and with what the market expected, and they look at the revisions to the last two months, which can change the picture as much as the new number.
Average hourly earnings and the unemployment rate in the same report often matter just as much, because wage growth feeds into inflation, which feeds into interest-rate expectations.
How markets have usually reacted
A strong report has often lifted the U.S. dollar and U.S. bond yields, as markets price a firmer Federal Reserve. Gold, which pays no interest and is priced in dollars, has often moved the other way. Stock indices can react either way: strong hiring is good for the economy but can mean higher rates for longer.
Mixed reports, for example strong jobs but weak wages, can make the first move reverse within minutes.
Common mistakes
- Reading only the headline and ignoring the revisions or the wage figure.
- Holding a tight stop through the release: spreads widen and prices can jump past a stop in the first seconds.
- Treating one month as a trend. Monthly job counts are noisy; the three-month average tells you more.
How a higher or lower figure is usually read
More jobs than last month is usually read as supportive for the U.S. dollar; fewer jobs as negative. The figure is one input among many, not a signal.
Release history
No past releases recorded yet.
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Official source
This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Calendar data: fred.stlouisfed.org
Published by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): www.bls.gov