What it measures
Average Hourly Earnings is the average pay per hour of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls. The calendar shows the change from the previous month; the year-on-year rate is in the same report.
Who publishes it and when
It is part of the Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, published with payrolls and the unemployment rate, usually on the first Friday of the month at 08:30 New York time.
How it is put together
Businesses in the Current Employment Statistics survey report total pay and total hours for their employees, and the average is pay divided by hours. Because it is an average, it changes when the mix of workers changes: if many low-paid jobs disappear, the average can rise even though nobody got a raise.
What traders watch
Traders compare the monthly change with expectations and with the pace that would fit the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation goal, and watch whether a strong or weak payroll number is confirmed by wages.
How markets have usually reacted
Faster wage growth has often supported the dollar and pushed yields up, and weighed on gold, because it points to firmer inflation. On days when payrolls and wages disagree, the market can swing between the two readings.
Common mistakes
- Forgetting the mix effect, which can make the average jump in unusual months.
- Looking only at payrolls on jobs day and missing the wage figure.
How a higher or lower figure is usually read
Faster wage growth than last month is usually read as supportive for the U.S. dollar; slower growth as negative. Not a signal.
Release history
No past releases recorded yet.
Related news
- US Non-Farm Payrolls
- US Unemployment Rate
- US Consumer Price Index (CPI)
- US Core PCE Price Index
- Economic calendar: every release this week in your time zone
- Lot size calculator: keep your risk the same around news
- How to use an economic calendar: what happens around a release, and how to plan for it
Trading involves a high risk of loss. This page is information and education, not advice or a signal to trade. See the Risk Disclaimer.
Official source
This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Calendar data: fred.stlouisfed.org
Published by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): www.bls.gov