What it measures
Gross Domestic Product is the value of all final goods and services produced in the United States, counted without double counting the parts that go into them. The calendar shows real GDP growth, which removes the effect of price changes, as an annual rate: the pace the economy would grow at over a year if the quarter's pace continued.
Who publishes it and when
The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes each quarter three times, at 08:30 New York time. The advance estimate comes about a month after the quarter ends, followed by the second and third estimates in the next two months as more data arrives. The calendar labels which estimate each release is.
How it is put together
BEA combines data on consumer spending, business investment, government spending, inventories and trade. Consumer spending is the largest part. The advance estimate fills gaps with BEA's own assumptions, so it is revised as fuller data comes in.
Where the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model publishes a running estimate, the calendar shows it as the forecast.
What traders watch
The advance estimate usually gets the most attention. Traders look past the headline at final sales to domestic buyers and consumer spending, because inventories and trade can swing the total from quarter to quarter. The inflation measure published with GDP is watched too.
How markets have usually reacted
A strong advance estimate has often supported the dollar and stock indices; a weak one has often weighed on them and helped gold as rate-cut hopes grow. The second and third estimates usually move markets less unless the revision is large.
Common mistakes
- Reading the annual rate as the actual growth in the quarter. A 2% annual rate is about 0.5% growth in the quarter itself.
- Ignoring the composition: a jump driven only by inventories says little about demand.
How a higher or lower figure is usually read
Faster growth than the previous reading is usually read as supportive for the U.S. dollar; slower growth as negative. Not a signal.
Release history
| Date | Period | Actual | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.4% | 2.2% |
Related news
- US Core PCE Price Index
- US Retail Sales
- US Non-Farm Payrolls
- US Durable Goods Orders
- Economic calendar: every release this week in your time zone
- Lot size calculator: keep your risk the same around news
- How to use an economic calendar: what happens around a release, and how to plan for it
Trading involves a high risk of loss. This page is information and education, not advice or a signal to trade. See the Risk Disclaimer.
Official source
This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Calendar data: fred.stlouisfed.org
Published by U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA): www.bea.gov