What it measures
The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices measures the change in the prices households pay for goods and services, built to the same rules in every EU country so that results can be compared. The calendar shows the flash estimate of the annual rate for the euro area as a whole.
Who publishes it and when
Eurostat issues the flash estimate at the end of each reference month, or on the first working days of the next month, at 11:00 Luxembourg time. The full release, with detail for every country, follows around the middle of the next month.
How it is put together
National statistical offices collect prices and send early data to Eurostat, which combines them into the euro area figure weighted by each country's share of consumer spending. Because the flash is built before every price is in, it can be revised in the full release, although changes are usually small.
The release also gives early figures for the main parts of the basket: energy, food, non-energy industrial goods and services.
What traders watch
Traders watch the headline and the core measure released at the same time, and especially services inflation. National figures from Germany, France, Italy and Spain, published shortly before, often shape expectations for the euro area number.
How markets have usually reacted
A higher than expected flash has often supported the euro and pushed European bond yields up as markets price a firmer ECB; a lower one has often had the opposite effect. Reactions can be muted when the big national figures have already been published.
Common mistakes
- Ignoring the country figures released earlier, which often take away most of the surprise.
- Treating the flash as final: it can still be revised in the full release.
How a higher or lower figure is usually read
Higher inflation than last month is usually read as supportive for the euro, because it points to firmer ECB policy; lower inflation as negative. Not a signal.
Release history
No past releases recorded yet.
Related news
- Euro Area Core HICP Flash Estimate
- ECB Rate Decision (deposit facility rate)
- Euro Area GDP Flash Estimate
- Euro Area Unemployment Rate
- Economic calendar: every release this week in your time zone
- Lot size calculator: keep your risk the same around news
- How to use an economic calendar: what happens around a release, and how to plan for it
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Official source
Eurostat data: Source: Eurostat (ec.europa.eu/eurostat), euro indicators; figures shown as published.
Calendar data: ec.europa.eu
Published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union: ec.europa.eu